RETRACTED ARTICLE: Analyzing of innovations influence on economic growth by fuzzy system

Economic growth may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the economic growth prediction based on the innovations by field of technology. Gross domestic product (GDP) was used as economic growth indicator. The method of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to the data in order to detect the influential parameters for the GDP prediction. Five inputs are considered: number of granted patents in electrical engineering, number of granted patents as instruments, number of granted patents in chemistry, number of granted patents in mechanical engineering and the number of granted patents in other fields. Results shown that the innovations in electrical engineering has the highest influence on the GDP prediction.

     

Ethnic Fractionalization,Governance and Loan Defaults in Africa

We present a theoretical model of an imperfectly competitive loans market that is suitable for emerging economies in Africa. The model allows for variation in both the level of contract enforcement (the quality of governance) and the degree of market segmentation (the level of ethnic fractionalization). The model predicts a specific form of nonlinearity in the effects of these variables on loan default. Empirical analysis using African panel data for 110 individual banks in 28 countries over 2000–08 provides strong evidence for these predictions. Our results have important implications for the conditions under which policy reform will enhance financial development.     

A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)

The paper describes an inter-country model developed on the New Keynesian Phillips curve principle for the economies of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Technically the modelling idea has been grounded within the concept of the infinite dimensional vector autoregressive models by Chudik and Pesaran [Chudik A., Pesara M.H., 2007. Infinite-dimensional VAR's and factor models. IZA; DP No. 3206]. The main developments are such that the model is 1) interdependent rather than vector autoregressive, 2) estimated by the generalised method of moments and 3) forward-looking. The primary linkage of the country models is provided through the real effective exchange rates of particular countries, while the secondary linkages are through the Chudik and Pesaran cross-sectional augmentations. A series of Monte Carlo experiments confirms that the small cross-dimension of the model and a possible dominance of one country in the panel (Russia) should not distort the results in a significant way. A series of stochastic simulation experiments made with and without the assumption of observational equivalence principle shows a possible spread of the Dutch Disease from Russia to other countries in the model.     

Brand equity of defectors and never boughts in a business financial market

Buyer acquisition is important for any supplier looking to maintain or expand its customer base. This study uses a brand equity perspective to compare the future customer potential of those who used the brand in the past but stopped (defectors), with the potential of those who have never bought the brand. On the surface, both groups possess the same propensity to consider the brand for future purchase. However, the underlying reasons for these propensities differ. Defectors hold both positive and negative information about the former brand. In contrast, those who have never bought the brand possess largely neutral opinions. The results imply that managers should consider treating these two groups separately because they require different acquisition strategies.     

Latvia

Situated on a trading crossroads between Western Europe and Russia, Latvia has emerged as one of the most successful countries in Central Europe. This article provides a comprehensive review of Latvia's historical development, political structure, economy, investment, and foreign‐trade environment. It aims to be a useful source of information for foreign businessmen and investors interested in doing business in Latvia. In the fall of 1991, when the Baltic States separated from the Soviet system, no one predicted that these countries would make the transition to a market‐based economy as quickly and as effectively as they have. However, 11 years later, with notable growth and rising standards of living, such thinking is no longer considered overly optimistic. “It is the biggest, most complicated, and most promising piece of the new Europe,” wrote The Economist (1998) in reference to the Baltic region. Wherever there is new growth, there are many business opportunities to be found. Latvia's position in the center of this region is one indication of the business potential for those with the capacity to do business there. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Prediction of economic growth by extreme learning approach based on science and technology transfer

The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. Economic growth may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the economic growth prediction based on the science and technology transfer. The main goal was to analyze the influence of number of granted European patents on the economic growth by field of technology. GDP was used as economic growth indicator. The ELM results are compared with genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural network (ANN). The reliability of the computational models were accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Coefficient of determination for ELM method is 0.9841, for ANN method it is 0.7956 and for the GP method it is 0.7561. Based upon simulation results, it is demonstrated that ELM can be utilized effectively in applications of GDP forecasting.

     

Why Do African Banks Lend So Little?

We put forward a plausible explanation of African banking sector under‐development in the form of a bad credit market equilibrium. Using an appropriately modified Industrial Organization model of banking, we show that the root of the problem could be unchecked moral hazard (strategic loan defaults) or adverse selection (a lack of good projects). Applying a dynamic panel estimator to a large sample of African banks, we show that loan defaults are a major factor inhibiting bank lending when institutional quality is low. We also find that once a threshold level of institutional quality has been reached, improvements in the default rate or institutional quality do not matter. This provides support for our theoretical predictions.     

Asymmetric Information and the Russian Individual Savings Market

The article considers the influence of informational imperfections on the performance of the Russian financial market. The focus is on the individual savings market, which exhibits inefficiencies, including those associated with the market power of a dominant agent—Sberbank. Reinforcement of Sberbank's dominance on the market in the period 1994‐98 (before the August default combined with financial crisis) is explained as a consequence of asymmetric information about the probability of bankruptcy of a new bank. Under asymmetric information a new private bank has to provide specific quality signals in order to attract depositors. Two major lines of inquiry are the criteria for choosing forms of savings, including that of a bank in which to deposit money, by Russian citizens, and banks' advertising strategies to confirm the factual risk of default. Within the conceptual framework of a game with separating equilibrium, we analyse the behaviour of the agents on both supply and demand sides in the market. We find that there is evidence of using advertising as a tool of quality signalling at a certain phase of the Russian individual savings market's development.